Uncertainty, scepticism and resistance: three ingredients that make any response to an event more robust; three variables that transform reality, capable of generating the individual mindset that allows us to seek and find high-quality responses as circumstances evolve. The alternative response our mind can produce to these three attitudes and their generative potential is an order to step away from the likelihood of discovering new solutions. In other words, “control and flight” as ancestral antidotes to healthy fear.
These three variables inevitably all relate to change. It goes without saying that making decisions means making choices, and decisions are usually tied to prospects—that is, to the paths unfolding before us. This is why uncertainty, in particular, prompts us to pause and observe possible futures more carefully, bringing forward choices and decisions today so we can navigate and live with specific scenarios.
Where does uncertainty come from, though? Is it truly caused only by exogenous factors, by objective data tied to the moment and situation? Or does much of it stem from how each of us approaches and interacts with what we encounter? In other words, is access to certain information and data really all that is needed to make decisions?
Western culture has led us to believe that sound decisions arise from analysing external factors, because they appear objective. Yet if that were true, it would not explain, for instance, the communicative chaos we are witnessing today, which we ourselves partly help create. Every conscious individual experiences how uncertainty triggers reactions: paralysis, decision-making deadlocks, deeper research and information gathering, or even the loss of interest and appeal.
However, a phenomenon in itself carries no emotional weight: it simply is. The difference lies in us: we interpret the phenomenon based on how it impacts us, making choices, decisions and moves that may not always align with the phenomenon itself, but certainly reflect our interpretation and personal experience—especially when this becomes a collective feeling.
It is clear, then, that decisions under uncertainty today seem driven solely by the quest for data, overlooking the vital role played by the individual’s own, intrinsic interpretation of that information.
Understanding how we generate “subjective” responses, interpretations, and ways of relating to diverse circumstances and observable phenomena could be the key to staying with uncertainty and turning it into an ally. This means increasing awareness of how individual thought is structured and built, as well as of our preferred mental models.
In other words, it is about seeking a balance between objective knowledge of the external phenomenon and a more objective understanding of how our thinking works. We cannot rule out that, for every individual, there is a personal balance in decisions and choices between exogenous and endogenous factors.
In conclusion, managing uncertainty as a lever for risk management should place greater value on how our subjective interpretive circuits operate. Understanding how our thought patterns work could allow us to find the balance needed to make “risky” decisions, weighing insight into external factors against awareness of our own needs.Written by:
Michela Melchiori
Senior Partner at Hermes Consulting
